John Walker Crime Trends Analysis Home Page

  Home Biography Links News What do we Do? Downloads John Walker Crime Trends Analysis Running Man Logo




Forensic Analysis of Unrecovered Stolen Vehicles

2007 in Review!

Cybercrime survey ended - results HERE!

 Updated estimates of ML in and through Australia

6-page Summary Report

100-page Main Report

Modeling Global Crime:

Illicit Drugs

Money Laundering

Justice System Resource Allocation:

Forecasting Trends in Crime

The Costs of Crime

Staffing the Police

Indigenous Over-representation in the Criminal Justice System



What do we Do?


Our Mission    Company Profile    Client & Visitor Feedback    Contact Information

John Walker Crime Trends Analysis

Thank you for visiting the website of John Walker Crime Trends Analysis.  You're probably here because you have an interest in solving the problems caused by crime, and it is almost self-evident that analysing the trends in crime will help to find a solution.  It's very important to do the analysis because it requires considerable public and private investment


to train police and financial crime investigators,


to educate judges,


to build police stations, courts and prisons and


to train correctional staff.

This investment involves both time and financial costs. Training too many police, judges and correctional staff, or building too many prisons, is a waste of government and other resources; training too few, or building too small, could lead to serious deficiencies in the justice system and poor levels of satisfaction amongst victims of crime and the public in general. John Walker Crime Trends Analysis has developed a methodology for strategic planning in the criminal justice system, based on over 25 years of experience and analysis. Only standard computer software is required.

At the global level, how often have you seen efforts to counter transnational crime and moneylaundering highjacked by power politics, so that instead of a rational approach that is based in an analysis of the evidence, you get a solution imposed on you by those with the loudest voices?  This too is highly dangerous, because the "wrong" solutions


impose heavy and often unnecessary financial costs on businesses and governments,


aim the "wrong" solutions at the "wrong" problems, and sometimes make things worse.

John Walker Crime Trends Analysis has a track record for insightful analysis of complex problems of transnational crime, identifying what really matters, and showing where the prevention and control efforts should be targeted.  

While we can compile the data, generate the projections and hand you the results, our preferred modus operandi is to work with local staff, and train staff to use the models as the basis for strategic planning processes.


We advise on the data requirements for the models, and how to collect the data.


We train your staff in data entry and an understanding of the models.


We conduct the expert workshops, and train your staff in translating the workshop consensuses into trend parameters.


We assist your staff to interpret the results in terms of resource implications for the future criminal justice system.


We advise on the annual updating of the projections and resource implications.

The aim is to develop your capability in strategic resource planning for your criminal justice system.

Our Mission

John Walker Crime Trends Analysis provides consultancy services specialising in the development of criminal justice forecasting and strategic planning models that have proven to be effective in improving the medium-long term focus and efficiency of police, courts, corrections, crime prevention and financial regulatory agencies. We prefer to work with local staff, and train staff to use the models as the basis for strategic planning processes.

The Dilbert cartoons below encapsulate some of the lighter sides of this work.  While these are very familiar situations, they definitely do not represent the official policies of John Walker Crime Trends Analysis.




Company Profile

John Walker Crime Trends Analysis was established in 1994. Since its establishment the consultancy service has assisted government and international agencies to plan and evaluate justice policy options through an understanding of the impacts on crime and justice of:


Changes in the demographic structure of the population.


Economic factors, especially changing rates of consumption and unemployment.


Illicit drug use and drug markets.


The impacts of new legislation and policy.


Changes in resources directed at crime prevention and control (especially policing).


Sentencing, including treatment of re-offenders and those in breach of court orders.

Prior to setting up his consultancy in 1994, John Walker worked as a research criminologist with the Australian Institute of Criminology. During this period he was ranked as the 25th most cited criminologists in the world’s major international journals since 1985, and the top 3 in Australia (Cohn E.G. and Farrington D.P., Changes in the Most-Cited Scholars in Major International Journals between 1986-90 and 1991-95, British Journal of Criminology Vol 38 No 1, Winter 1998).

Between 1994 and 2001, he worked exclusively as an independent researcher, with clients including the United Nations Centre for International Crime Prevention (for whom he was principal author of the International Survey on Firearms Regulation report and an invited author of sections of the Global Report on Crime and Justice), the Australian Transaction Reports & Analysis Centre (which commissioned his "Estimates of the Extent of Money Laundering in and through Australia"), and several State correctional agencies (including Victoria, Tasmania, the A.C.T., New Zealand and Colorado (USA)). 

Between 2001 and 2004, he was responsible for the development of crime and justice forecasting techniques in the Victorian Department of Justice, and his work was acknowledged by the Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance as best practice in the State public service (see their Management Reform Program Case Study)[3]. The projections were fundamental to the Public Correctional Enterprise of Victoria being awarded a Silver Medal for Business Excellence during 2003[2], the highest level ever awarded to any Australian public service agency.  The modeling of Community Corrections in Victoria was also awarded a prize for “Breaking new ground” at the “Probation 2004” conference organised by the U.K. National Probation Service[4], recognising "exemplary community corrections projects which serve to advance the knowledge, effectiveness and the integrity of the criminal justice system".

Since returning to full-time consultancy in 2004, he has advised the Australian Government on the extent of money laundering in Australia, developed resource allocation models for the Victoria Police and the Attorney General’s Aboriginal Legal Services, and conducted analyses of future correctional trends in Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. The high calibre and international recognition of John Walker’s expertise was further demonstrated when in 2005, against competition from large multinational research corporations, he was approached and commissioned to develop an economic model of the global illicit drug trades for the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. 

Client and Visitor Feedback

The Police Allocation Model has exceeded everyone's expectations - Assistant Commissioner, Victoria Police 2007.

Walker (1995 and 1998) was a pioneer who attempted to measure money laundering worldwide - Austrian Economics Professor 2006.

Hi John, thanks for working with us so amicably, it is really appreciated - Victorian Dept of Justice 2006.

Thanks for coming and giving your presentation at such short notice.  It was indeed lovely to meet you at last and your input, especially the presentation and the ensuing discussion was very valuable. It has been a pleasure to work with you - A.C.T. Juvenile Justice 2006.

While others generate publicity for wild estimates of the extent of money laundering, John Walker modestly devotes much of his life to the development of complex models to identify risks and to quantify aspects of the money laundering problem - Anti-money-laundering expert Hong Kong 2006.

"For far too long the illicit drug market as been able to operate and hide in obscurity. It has taken much work and dedication, across the world, to shed light on this pernicious market”. ...John Walker's... “collaboration was vital to the development of the model which produced the estimates for the value of the illicit drug market” - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Vienna, 2005.

I am so pleased to work with you in this project. And the outcome of this project is very impressive academically and operationally. Congratulations! - Victoria Police analyst 2005.

Thanks of everything, thanks for your patience and thanks for your benevolence, you have taught me more things you with some emails than the university in five years - Italian PhD economics student 2005.

You are so kind. I have download your file and check the interesting website you attached. Both wonderful, I like them very much. I really appreciate your help and instruction - Chinese PhD criminology student 2005.

Thanks for the papers that you have sent me about your study about the global money laundering flows. They are very, very, very helpful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have included them in my paper. ;-)  - Austrian PhD economics student 2004.

I had the pleasure to meet you last year during the SADC/ESAAMLG conference near Johannesburg, and I considered your presentation "blue-label quality" - Financial Sector Expert, International Monetary Fund 2004.

I was so surprised to find your site. I must say your work sounds very exciting and I like your style - website visitor 2003.

I must say your pages are excellent. Your observations coincide with mine and are perfectly logical. It is a pity politicians and policy makers in our "Washminster" system of government can't see this. I'm looking forward to reading more of your work.  Keep it up this is great stuff -  NSW Police Criminal Intelligence Analyst 2003.

I just wanted to tell you I liked your site and I appreciated your sensible, straight-talking approach. I was actually looking for stats but I found your site an interesting read. Well done especially for having the balls to say something pointed about Aboriginal crime rates. The way Australia has handled this problem is atrocious and our continuing pitiful lack of interest in resolving Aboriginal deaths in custody is even worse - public relations coordinator 2003.

Contact Information

+61 (0)2 6297 9764
+61 (0)2 6299 7501
Postal address
6 Severne St, Queanbeyan, NSW2620, Australia
Electronic mail



Send mail to with questions or comments about this web site.
Copyright © 2007 John Walker Crime Trends Analysis
Last modified: 02/06/08