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An economic model of the world drug markets.

This article began life as a draft for the World Drug Report 2005.  After almost a decade of being told by major international research companies that it was not possible to assemble an economic model of the global illicit drugs trades, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime in Vienna contracted John Walker to develop ideas he had first put forward in 1999[1].  The resulting model has been acclaimed as a world first, and is available at http://www.unodc.org/pdf/WDR_2005/volume_1_chap2.pdf.  For the full and final results of the model, readers should follow that link.  If you prefer just to get an idea of how the models were set up, the following text describes the methodology used for three of the major categories of drugs included in the overall model.  These preliminary figures may differ from those in the WDR2005 due to final consistency checks.

MODELING THE WORLD DRUGS MARKETS.

An important element in determining the global response to the illicit drug problem is knowing the economics of the problem.  There is now enough information available from the Annual Reports Questionnaires, and from the many national and international-level studies that have been conducted in recent years, to construct a reasonably robust economic model of the main illicit drugs markets. Using data from the 2004 World Drug Report, together with a number of research-based assumptions related to how the markets work, UNODC has developed a model to estimate the total value of the illicit drugs markets around the world.    The approach is to model the key drug types separately - Opiates, Cocaine, Cannabis (Herb and Resin), Ecstasy and Other Amphetamine-type stimulants – and then combine them to form a picture of the overall market. 

The basic generic model takes input data from the 2004 World Drug Report, Volume 2: Statistics, and allows for expert knowledge to choose from a number of options relating to how the specific market works.  Thus, while the model itself is generic, the different drug types can reflect their specific market mechanisms and the different ways the markets operate in different countries and regions of the world.    

The model allows users considerable scope, both for testing hypotheses about relative levels of consumption and prices, and for embedding expert knowledge into the estimates.  For example, in countries and regions where particular drugs are commonplace, such as producer or transit countries, the model can reflect the fact that prices are generally low and the level of consumption of those drugs is less dependent on price or supply than on user numbers and preferences, whereas in countries and regions which import their supply, both price and availability will influence levels of consumption.  The model can also express known or hypothesised differences in the supply chains caused by particular geographic or ethnic links between regions or the different degrees of commercialisation of the drug production and distribution systems in different countries and regions.  The model can also express differences in the extent to which countries in different regions successfully intercept the flows of illicit drugs from producer countries to consumers.   

Each drug model commences with key drug-specific input data at country level, including estimated drug user numbers, drug production data, drug seizure data, drug consumption data, and wholesale and retail price data from the ARQs.  The appropriate regional averages are used for countries for which there are no data, unless better information is available.   The different units of measurement (e.g. litres, units, doses etc) are converted into standardised kilogram equivalents.

The main workings of the model starts with regional estimates of production, works out the principal trade routes, based on regional proximities and on known trade flows, and concludes with estimates of the value of the markets in each region, in millions of US dollars.  It is complex, as is necessary for a model of a complex issue, but it is not “rocket science”.

The modelling exercise itself has highlighted a number of apparent anomalies in the data – such as figures out of kilter with regional neighbours’ data or results that suggest that wholesalers or retailers are trading at a loss.  By calculating a range of useful regional averages and totals it informs the user about which countries and/or regions are most influential in determining the overall shape and size of the market.  “Bad” data can be identified and eliminated from the model or replaced by better data.  The model is therefore already a useful tool for comparing and checking the various estimates and hypotheses upon which it is based.

Readers must remember that the model is based on data that has recognised flaws and assumptions that have known limitations. The purpose of such a model is, however, achieved if it succeeds in providing a credible estimate of the true size of the problem and in identifying the regional hot-spots and market relativities to the extent that the appropriate levels and types of counter-measures can be identified, implemented and, through monitoring changes in the data over time, evaluated.

WHAT THE MODELS TELL US ABOUT THE GLOBAL COCAINE, OPIATES AND CANNABIS TRADES

Cocaine trade valued at over US$70 billion per year

Since fairly accurate estimates of actual cocaine user numbers and their average consumption per user are available for the Caribbean, Central, North and South America, Western & Central Europe and Oceania[2], these estimates were embedded in the model.  Consumption in all other regions was based on known levels of coca and cocaine seizures in those regions.  The more developed regions of Southern Africa, North America, Near & Middle East /SW Asia, Western & Central Europe and Oceania were recognised as having more effective drug seizure mechanisms than other regions, which were reflected in consumption patterns consistent with known research-based estimates.  The Tables below present the results of the Cocaine model. 

Table 1 presents an analysis of levels of production in source countries and distribution to consumer countries.  A total of 761 tons of cocaine equivalent is estimated to be sent from South American producers to consumers around the world, of which 652.6 tons survive the attentions of source-country police and customs agencies.  These 652.6 tons of cocaine equivalent, at an average of $808 per Kilogram, provide a total of US$527 million producer income, entirely generated in the South American region.

Table 2 shows that North America, West and Central Europe, and South America account for most of the demand for cocaine - results that are commensurate with other research findings[3].  With a global average transit/destination-country seizure rate of 23%[4], this quantum is reduced to just over 500 tons of cocaine equivalent, which, at a global average wholesale price of $37 per gram, produces $18.7 billion of income to wholesalers.  Half of this income is generated in North America alone.  Most of the remainder is generated in West and Central Europe. 

The 13.3 million cocaine users around the world collectively consume the 498 tons that reach them, at an average global usage rate of 37.4gms/user per year and an average global price of $141/gm, to produce $70.5 billion of income to retailers[5].  Of this income, $43 billion accrues to traders in the consumer region of North America and $17 billion to traders in West and Central Europe, while only just over $5 billion accrues to traders in the producer countries themselves.

Table 1. Estimated Production in Source Regions - Cocaine

Production:

S America

 

 

Total Production in Source Country *

761000

Total Seized/Lost in Source Country *

108381

Total Available for Sale *

652619

Farmgate Price at Origin (US$/Kg Cocaine Equiv)

808

Producer Income (US$mill)

527

* (Kg Cocaine Equivalent)

 Table 2. Estimated Supply and Demand in Destination Regions - Cocaine

Supply/Demand

E Africa

N Africa

S Africa

W & C Africa

Caribbean

C America

N America

S America

C Asia  & Transcaucasus

E & SE Asia

Near & Middle East /SW Asia

S Asia

E Europe

W & C Europe

SE Europe

Oceania

All Countries

Supply:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Intended for Consumption *

749

1078

4927

6370

17110

15599

355214

100630

4

2708

1267

681

2881

133806

2143

7451

652619

Total Seized/Lost at Destination *

9

13

298

26

11350

8880

72776

31796

0

44

102

11

47

26444

43

58

151898

Total Available for Consumption *

740

1065

4629

6344

5760

6719

282438

68834

4

2665

1165

670

2835

107361

2099

7393

500721

Wholesale price US$ /gm

133

150

25

33

11

13

32

4

60

43

65

70

101

64

92

140

37

Wholesaler Income (US$mill)

99

160

114

207

64

88

9168

247

0

116

76

47

287

6831

193

1037

18734

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Demand:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

User Population (Thousands)

65

66

265

540

164

191

6382

1961

5

94

30

26

108

3059

172

211

13339.2

Actual Consumption per year *

666

959

4166

5710

5760

6719

282438

68834

3

2398

1048

603

2551

107361

1889

7393

498500

Consumption per user (gms)

10.3

14.5

15.7

10.6

35.1

35.1

44.3

35.1

0.7

25.4

35.2

23.0

23.5

35.1

11.0

35.1

37.4

Average Retail Price US$ /gm

348

520

47

60

49

20

156

46

183

253

121

227

124

161

208

380

141

Retailer Income (US$mill)

232

499

198

341

281

132

43951

3172

1

607

127

137

316

17328

394

2809

70524

* (Kg Cocaine Equivalent)

 Table 3. Estimated Value of Regional Trading - Cocaine

Regional Net Values (US$mill):

E Africa

N Africa

S Africa

W & C Africa

Caribbean

C America

N America

S America

C Asia  & Transcaucasus

E & SE Asia

Near & Middle East /SW Asia

S Asia

E Europe

W & C Europe

SE Europe

Oceania

All Countries

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source Country Producers' Income

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

527

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

527

Source Country Wholesalers' Net Income

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1701

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1701

International Wholesalers' Net Income

96

156

97

184

3

32

7893

0

0

106

72

44

277

6350

185

1010

16505

Net Retailer Profit (US$mill)

133

338

83

135

217

45

34783

2925

0

491

51

90

29

10497

201

1772

51789

Gross Value of Regional Trade

229

495

180

319

220

76

42676

5153

1

597

122

134

306

16847

386

2782

70524

 

Opiates also valued at over US$70 billion per year:

WDR 2004 and more recent ARQ production, price and seizures data were used to construct an economic model of the global illicit opiates trades[6].  Consumption levels in the principal producer regions of E & SE Asia and Near & Middle East /SW Asia, and the transit regions of Central Asia and Transcaucasus, South Asia, South East Europe, Central America and the Caribbean were modelled using reliable estimates of user numbers and their estimated average consumption per annum.  Consumption levels in all other regions were based on the levels of reported seizures in those regions.  The more developed regions of North America, Western & Central Europe and Oceania were recognised as having more effective drug seizure mechanisms than other regions.  The resulting seizure rates in these regions produced consumption estimates that are consistent with other studies and data.

Table 4 shows that a total of 476.5 tons of heroin equivalent is estimated to be sent from source countries to consumers around the world, of which 465.7 tons survive the attentions of source-country police and customs agencies.  Three quarters of this production comes from the Near and Middle East/SW Asian region, and, at an average of $2,520 per Kilogram, these drugs provide a total of US$1,173 million producer income, predominantly in the Near and Middle East/SW Asian region.  These results are commensurate with other research findings[7]

With a global average transit/destination-country seizure rate of 11.4% generated by the model[8], this quantum is reduced to just under 411 tons of heroin equivalent, which, at a global average wholesale price of $54 per gram, produces $22 billion of income to wholesalers, with West and Central Europe and North America accounting for most of the external demand..  Almost a third of this income is generated in West and Central Europe, with North America and South Asia each generating a fifth of world wholesale income. 

Table 4. Estimated Production in Source Regions - Opiates

 

Production:

N Africa

N America

S America

C Asia  & Transcaucasus

E & SE Asia

Near & Middle East /SW Asia

E Europe

All Countries

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Production in Source Country *

714

8400

5268

770

94050

365150

2147

476500

Total Seized/Lost in Source Country *

 

209

440

 

582

9551

 

10781

Total Available for Sale *

714

8191

4829

770

93468

355599

2147

465719

Farmgate Price at Origin (US$/Kg Heroin Equiv)

 

 

 

 

1339

2830

 

2520

Producer Income (US$mill)

2

21

12

2

125

1006

5

1173

·          (Kg Heroin Equivalent)

Table 5. Estimated Distribution Patterns from Source Regions to Consumer Regions - Opiates

Consumer Regions

 

 

Producer Regions

E Africa

N Africa

S Africa

W & C Africa

Caribbean

C America

N America

S America

C Asia  & Transcaucasus

E & SE Asia

Near & Middle East / SW Asia

S Asia

E Europe

W & C Europe

SE Europe

Oceania

Total Available for Sale

North Africa

 

714

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

714

North America

 

 

 

 

 

 

8,191

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8,191

South America

 

 

 

 

 

 

2,961

1,867

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4,829

C. Asia, Transcaucasus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

770

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

770

E. & S.E. Asia

354

179

88

794

39

85

5,229

 

1,222

59,928

 

6,666

6,944

10,349

1,029

563

93,468

Nr & Mid-East /SW Asia

3,032

1,625

724

6,555

325

698

43,142

 

10,084

 

78,352

55,000

57,300

85,394

9,180

4,189

355,599

Eastern Europe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2,147

 

 

 

2,147

All Countries

3,386

2,518

811

7,350

364

783

59,523

1,867

12,076

59,928

78,352

61,666

66,391

95,743

10,208

4,752

465,719

Table 5 presents a likely division of the world’s opiates markets between the principal supplier regions. South America, East and South-eastern Asia, and the Near & Middle East/SW Asia regions are self-sufficient, while the local production in North Africa, North America, Central Asia and Eastern Europe is augmented by importation from the main producer regions in Asia. 

Finally, the model suggests that the 15 million heroin users around the world collectively consume the 388 tons that reach them, at an average global usage rate of 25.8gms/user per year and an average global price of $181/gm, to produce $70 billion of income to retailers[9].  Of this income, over $40 billion accrues to traders in the consumer regions of North America and West and Central Europe, while only just over $10 billion accrues to traders in the principal producer countries themselves.

Table 6. Estimated Supply and Demand in Destination Regions - Opiates

Supply/Demand

E Africa

N Africa

S Africa

W & C Africa

Caribbean

C America

N America

S America

C Asia  & Transcaucasus

E & SE Asia

Near & Middle East /SW Asia

S Asia

E Europe

W & C Europe

SE Europe

Oceania

All Countries

Supply:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Intended for Consumption *

3386

2518

811

7350

364

783

59523

1867

12076

59928

78352

61666

66391

95743

10208

4752

465719

Total Seized/Lost at Destination *

47

35

7

51

80

180

6621

399

2748

6885

27723

252

923

3994

4713

198

54856

Total Available for Consumption *

3339

2483

805

7299

285

603

52902

1468

9328

53042

50629

61413

65468

91749

5496

4554

410863

Wholesale price US$ /gm

28

42

28

15

38

73

93

35

21

38

7

71

36

73

26

140

54

Wholesaler Income (US$mill)

93

104

22

113

11

44

4894

51

194

2022

379

4355

2353

6670

145

638

22088

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Demand:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

User Population (Thousands)

84

108

85

524

21

24

1490

980

370

2105

2009

3102

2406

1450

180

99

15038

Actual Consumption per year *

3005

2235

724

6569

285

603

47612

1468

9328

53042

50629

61413

58921

82574

5496

4098

388003

Consumption per user (gms)

35.9

20.6

8.5

12.5

13.5

25.2

32.0

1.5

25.2

25.2

25.2

19.8

24.5

56.9

30.6

41.3

25.8

Average Retail Price US$ /gm

40

124

81

57

41

83

391

98

51

108

12

123

133

302

183

561

181

Retailer Income (US$mill)

121

278

59

374

12

50

18602

144

480

5725

596

7567

7858

24931

1006

2298

70101

* (Kg Heroin Equivalent)

Table 7. Estimated Value of Regional Trading - Opiates

Regional Net Values (US$mill):

E Africa

N Africa

S Africa

W & C Africa

Caribbean

C America

N America

S America

C Asia  & Transcaucasus

E & SE Asia

Near & Middle East /SW Asia

S Asia

E Europe

W & C Europe

SE Europe

Oceania

All Countries

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source Country Producers' Income

 

2

 

 

 

 

21

12

2

125

1006

 

5

 

 

 

1173

Source Country Wholesalers' Net Income

 

       30

 

 

 

 

 674

 51

 12

 1,942

 157

 

 76

 

 

 

2941

International Wholesalers' Net Income

57

56

14

113

7

44

3596

 

60

 

 

4355

1583

5636

37

585

16142

Net Retailer Profit (US$mill)

28

173

36

262

1

6

13708

93

286

3703

217

3212

5505

18261

861

1660

48012

Gross Value of Regional Trade

85

260

50

374

8

50

17998

156

360

5770

1381

7566

7170

23897

898

2245

68269

Cannabis – the world’s most ubiquitous drug – valued at over $160 billion per annum:

There are two distinctly different Cannabis markets: - Cannabis Resin and Herbal Cannabis. Production estimates[10], including recent production estimates for Morocco and 1998 estimates for the Afghanistan-Pakistan and Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan regions, were extrapolated to the other main producer countries (India, Lebanon, Albania, Iran, Nepal and Jamaica) on the basis of the numbers of times these countries are mentioned in ARQs. 

Total production in these regions was estimated to be 7000 tons per year. Other regions’ total production was estimated to be 400 tons per year, pro-rata amongst mentioned countries across Africa, South America and Asia. Producer prices data were derived from the 2003 Survey of Moroccan cannabis production.  Seizure, wholesale and retail price data were taken from the country-level entries for the year 2002 in the WDR 2004 publication, augmented by more recent ARQ information where the WDR 2004 data were found to be inconsistent with other information.  Consumer numbers and average consumption data were regarded as more reliable indicators of availability than seizure data for most regions.  Consumption in the North Africa, Central America and Near and Middle East/South West Asia regions was based on the levels of seizures in those regions.

The Tables below present the results of the Cannabis models.  Totals of over 40,000 tons of herb and 7,400 tons of cannabis resin are estimated to be sent to consumers around the world, of which 35,000 tons and 7,100 tons respectively survive the attentions of source-country police and customs agencies.  Herbal cannabis is illegally produced in every region of the world, but particularly in North America, while around seventy per cent of cannabis resin production comes from the North African and Near and Middle East/SW Asian regions.  These results are commensurate with other research findings[11].

Table 8a. Estimated Production in Source Regions – Herbal Cannabis

Production:

E Africa

N Africa

S Africa

W & C Africa

Caribbean

C America

N America

S America

C Asia  & Transcaucasus

E & SE Asia

Near & Middle East /SW Asia

S Asia

E Europe

W & C Europe

SE Europe

Oceania

All Countries

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Production in Source Country *

714

4554

3122

3377

607

173

14370

4813

2248

1534

660

3073

108

978

440

110

40879

Total Seized/Lost in Source Country *

 

 

 

 

 

 

5391

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5391

Total Available for Sale *

714

4554

3122

3377

607

173

8979

4813

2248

1534

660

3073

108

978

440

110

35489

Farmgate Price at Origin (US$/Kg)

 1.4

 3.7

 4.2

 1.6

 481

 113

 936

 16.8

 27.5

 30.5

 50.0

 9.5

 680

1,300

 32.8

1,018

 295

Producer Income (US$mill)

 1

 17

 13

 5

 292

 20

 8,407

 81

 62

 47

 33

 29

 73

 1,272

 14

 112

10,478

* (Metric Tons)

Table 8b. Estimated Production in Source Regions – Cannabis Resin

Production:

E Africa

N Africa

S Africa

W & C Africa

Caribbean

C America

N America

S America

C Asia  & Transcaucasus

E & SE Asia

Near & Middle East /SW Asia

S Asia

E Europe

W & C Europe

SE Europe

Oceania

All Countries

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Production in Source Country *

122

3080

142

36

257

 

 

20

638

60

1992

680

20

 

354

 

7400

Total Seized/Lost in Source Country *

 

66

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

228

5

 

 

 

 

301

Total Available for Sale *

122

3014

142

36

256

 

 

20

638

60

1763

674

20

 

354

 

7099

Farmgate Price at Origin (US$/Kg)

 

94.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

94.7

Producer Income (US$mill)

12

285

13

3

24

0

0

2

60

6

167

64

2

0

34

0

673

* (Metric Tons)

Total producer incomes exceed $11 billion, mostly from the North American region.

The problem of portability of the relatively low-value, high volume, leaf results in the majority of trade in herbal cannabis being within the region of production.  For the same reason, international trade in herbal cannabis is limited to trade mostly between geographical neighbours or via shipping routes (see Tables 9a and 9b).  The cannabis resin trade, on the other hand, is dominated by West and Central European demand, and supplies are smuggled from a wide range of sources, principally North Africa.

Table 9a. Estimated Distribution Patterns from Source Regions to Consumer Regions – Herbal Cannabis *

Consumer Regions

 

 

 

Producer Regions

E Africa

N Africa

S Africa

W & C Africa

Caribbean

C America

N America

S America

C Asia  & Transcaucasus

E & SE Asia

Near & Middle East / SW Asia

S Asia

E Europe

W & C Europe

SE Europe

Oceania

Total Available for Sale

East Africa

714

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

714

North Africa

458

1278

0

1287

0

0

0

0

0

0

218

0

409

763

0

142

4554

Southern Africa

208

0

1760

536

0

0

0

0

0

0

93

0

175

288

0

61

3122

West and Central Africa

0

0

0

3377

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3377

Caribbean

0

0

0

0

456

3

0

0

0

52

8

45

14

23

0

5

607

Central America

0

0

0

0

0

173

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

173

North America

0

0

0

0

0

0

8979

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

8979

South America

0

0

0

0

0

57

0

1770

0

1059

152

918

287

471

0

99

4813

C. Asia  & Transcaucasus

0

0

0

0

0

33

0

0

489

613

88

531

165

272

0

57

2248

East and South-East Asia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1534

0

0

0

0

0

0

1534

Near & M.East /SW Asia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

660

0

0

0

0

0

660

South Asia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3073

0

0

0

0

3073

Eastern Europe

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

108

0

0

0

108

Western & Central Europe

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

978

0

0

978

South East Europe

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

34

5

29

9

17

342

3

440

Oceania

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

110

110

All Countries

1380

1278

1760

5201

456

266

8979

1770

489

3292

1223

4596

1168

2813

342

477

35489

* (Metric Tons)

Table 9b. Estimated Distribution Patterns from Source Regions to Consumer Regions – Cannabis Resin *

Consumer Regions

 

 

Producer Regions

E Africa

N Africa

S Africa

W & C Africa

Caribbean

C America

N America

S America

C Asia  & Transcaucasus

E & SE Asia

Near & Middle East / SW Asia

S Asia

E Europe

W & C Europe

SE Europe

Oceania

Total Available for Sale

East Africa

57

0

0

1

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

3

59

0

0

122

North Africa

0

919

0

49

0

0

48

0

0

0

0

0

136

1860

0

2

3014

Southern Africa

0

0

101

1

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

2

38

0

0

142

West and Central Africa

0

0

0

36

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

36

Caribbean

0

0

0

5

2

0

4

0

0

0

0

0

13

233

0

0

256

Central America

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

North America

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

South America

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

0

1

16

0

0

20

C. Asia  & Transcaucasus

0

0

0

11

0

0

10

0

67

0

0

0

26

524

0

0

638

East and South-East Asia

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

0

0

14

0

0

2

42

0

0

60

Near & M.East /SW Asia

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

1735

0

1

26

0

0

1763

South Asia

0

0

0

8

0

0

7

0

0

0

0

271

20

368

0

0

674

Eastern Europe

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

20

0

0

0

20

Western & Central Europe

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

South East Europe

0

0

0

5

0

0

5

0

0

0

0

0

12

240

93

0

354

Oceania

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

All Countries

57

919

101

117

2

0

77

2

67

14

1735

271

236

3405

93

3

7099

* (Metric Tons)

Finally, the model estimates that the 190 million users of at least one of these forms of cannabis around the world collectively consume around 37,000 tons of cannabis.  Users of herbal cannabis consume an average of 204gms/user per year while those who use resin consume an average of 157gms/user per year.  The average global retail prices were $4.50/gm for both herb and resin forms, producing a total of $167 billion of income to cannabis retailers[12], over half of which is generated in North America.

Table 10a. Estimated Supply and Demand in Destination Regions – Herbal Cannabis

Supply/Demand

E Africa

N Africa

S Africa

W & C Africa

Caribbean

C America

N America

S America

C Asia  & Transcaucasus

E & SE Asia

Near & Middle East /SW Asia

S Asia

E Europe

W & C Europe

SE Europe

Oceania

All Countries

Supply:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Intended for Consumption *

1380

1278

1760

5201

456

266

8979

1770

489

3292

1223

4596

1168

2813

342

477

35489

Total Seized/Lost at Destination *

774

69

159

562

133

8

10

482

26

47

88

83

42

101

18

7

2610

Total Available for Consumption *

605

1209

1602

4638

323

258

8969

1288

463

3245

1135

4513

1126

2712

323

470

32878

Wholesale price US$ /gm

1.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

1.6

0.2

2.0

0.2

0.3

1.2

0.4

0.1

1.4

1.4

0.4

2.8

1.0

Wholesaler Income (US$mill)

603

223

110

301

514

49

17816

307

150

3992

412

302

1531

3800

145

1327

31582

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Demand:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

User Population (Thousands)

2422

5159

5425

20590

1291

935

35877

5152

1827

18586

4198

24361

5192

15802

1809

2351

150977

Actual Consumption per year *

605

1088

1442

4175

323

232

8969

1288

416

2920

1022

4061

1013

2441

291

470

30756

Consumption per user (gms)

250

211

266

203

250

248

250

250

228

157

243

167

195

154

161

200

204

Average Retail Price US$ /gm

2.4

0.5

0.3

1.0

6.4

1.5

10.6

0.9

0.7

3.8

1.4

0.2

2.5

5.3

4.8

9.5

4.5

Retailer Income (US$mill)

1434

571

483

4213

2073

353

94678

1210

272

11121

1427

627

2518

12881

1404

4451

139718

* (Metric Tons)

Table 10b. Estimated Supply and Demand in Destination Regions – Cannabis Resin

Supply/Demand

E Africa

N Africa

S Africa

W & C Africa

Caribbean

C America

N America

S America

C Asia  & Transcaucasus

E & SE Asia

Near & Middle East /SW Asia

S Asia

E Europe

W & C Europe

SE Europe

Oceania

All Countries

Supply:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Intended for Consumption *

57

919

101

117

2

0

77

2

67

14

1735

271

236

3405

93

3

7099

Total Seized/Lost at Destination *

2

4

2

0

0

0

1

1

0

1

8

20

1

731

2

0

772

Total Available for Consumption *

55

915

99

117

2

0

76

1

67

13

1727

251

235

2674

91

3

6327

Wholesale price US$ /gm

0.8

1.5

3.3

1.8

0.6

2.6

5.6

0.6

0.8

4.1

0.3

0.4

3.8

1.9

1.1

6.6

1.4