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We are proudly assisted by Business and Industry Development, ACT Government.


Updates to "Years in Review"

Published by the Australian Crime Commission: The Cost of Serious and Organised Crime in Australia, Dec 2015. 

Published July 2013 杨泾,  Walker J., and 吴志明. Where does China’s Dirty Money Outflow? - The Walker Gravity Model and Five Dimensions Analysis, Chinese Journal of Financial Theory and Practice, July 2013.

Published September 2013 Walker,J. and Unger B., (2013) Measuring Global Moneylaundering: - the Walker Gravity Model,, in Research Handbook on Money Laundering, Eds Brigitte Unger and Daan van der Linde, Edward Elgar Press.

Published 26/10/2011 Pietschmann, T. and Walker,J. (2011) Estimating illicit financial flows resulting from drug trafficking and other transnational organized crimes, Research Report, Vienna, U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime.

Published 1/1/2010 in the Review of Law and Economics: Measuring Global Money Laundering: "The Walker Gravity Model", by John Walker and Brigitte Unger (Utrecht University School of Economics)

Currently assisting:

bulletthe Catholic University of Milan (TransCrime), with analysis of the Organised Crime Investment Portfolio;
bulletthe Victorian dept of Justice with a workload and finance forecasting model for the whole of the Justice portfolio;
bulletthe Singapore Ministry of Home Affairs with the development of a forecasting model for crime and justice;
bulletthe ACT Dept of Justice and Community Services with a Prison Projections Model.

Previous Projects:

bulletthe United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Vienna, with analysis of illicit financial flows from Transnational Organised Crime;
bulletthe ACT Dept of Justice and Community Services with a Police Staffing Model.
bulletAnalysis of the Proceeds of Crime & Cost-effectiveness of Anti-Moneylaundering efforts in European Union Countries.
bulletthe Victorian Court of Appeal with Court Workload projections;
bulletthe IMF in developing a methodology to measure money laundering risks.


Finalist in the ACT Chief Minister's Export Awards, 2008, recognising my work with the Chinese People's Public Security University, the UNODC and the IMF.

Presentation to Norad, Oslo, Estimating Illicit Flows from Developing Countries

2008 in Review!

 Updated estimates of ML in and through Australia

6-page Summary Report

100-page Main Report

Modeling Global Crime:

Illicit Drugs

Money Laundering

Justice System Resource Allocation:

Forecasting Trends in Crime

The Costs of Crime

Staffing the Police

Indigenous Over-representation in the Criminal Justice System




However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results. -- Sir Winston Churchill

Basic research is what I am doing when I don't know what I am doing. -- Wernher von Braun

It's so much easier to suggest solutions when you don't know too much about the problem. -- Malcolm Forbes


Philosophy    History    Client & Visitor Feedback    Contact Information   Photos   "Walker's Law"

John Walker Crime Trends Analysis

Thank you for visiting the website of John Walker Crime Trends Analysis.  You're probably here because you have an interest in solving the problems caused by crime, and it is almost self-evident that analysing the trends in crime will help to find a solution.  It's very important to do the analysis because it requires considerable public and private investment


to train police and financial crime investigators,


to educate judges,


to build police stations, courts and prisons and


to train correctional staff.

This investment involves both time and financial costs. Training too many police, judges and correctional staff, or building too many prisons, is a waste of government and other resources; training too few, or building too small, could lead to serious deficiencies in the justice system and poor levels of satisfaction amongst victims of crime and the public in general. John Walker Crime Trends Analysis has developed a methodology for strategic planning in the criminal justice system, based on over 25 years of experience and analysis. Only standard computer software is required.

At the global level, how often have you seen efforts to counter transnational crime and moneylaundering highjacked by power politics, so that instead of a rational approach that is based in an analysis of the evidence, you get a solution imposed on you by those with the loudest voices?  This too is highly dangerous, because the "wrong" solutions


impose heavy and often unnecessary financial costs on businesses and governments,


aim the "wrong" solutions at the "wrong" problems, and sometimes make things worse.

John Walker Crime Trends Analysis has a track record for insightful analysis of complex problems of transnational crime, identifying what really matters, and showing where the prevention and control efforts should be targeted.  

While we can compile the data, generate the projections and hand you the results, our preferred modus operandi is to work with local staff, and train staff to use the models as the basis for strategic planning processes.


We advise on the data requirements for the models, and how to collect the data.


We train your staff in data entry and an understanding of the models.


We conduct the expert workshops, and train your staff in translating the workshop consensuses into trend parameters.


We assist your staff to interpret the results in terms of resource implications for the future criminal justice system.


We advise on the annual updating of the projections and resource implications.

The aim is to develop your capability in strategic resource planning for your criminal justice system.


John Walker Crime Trends Analysis provides consultancy services specialising in the development of criminal justice forecasting and strategic planning models that have proven to be effective in improving the medium-long term focus and efficiency of police, courts, corrections, crime prevention and financial regulatory agencies. We prefer to work with local staff, and train staff to use the models as the basis for strategic planning processes.

The Dilbert cartoons below encapsulate some of the lighter sides of this work.  While these are very familiar situations, they definitely do not represent the official policies of John Walker Crime Trends Analysis.





John Walker Crime Trends Analysis was established in 1994. Since its establishment the consultancy service has assisted government and international agencies to plan and evaluate justice policy options through an understanding of the impacts on crime and justice of:


Changes in the demographic structure of the population.


Economic factors, especially changing rates of consumption and unemployment.


Illicit drug use and drug markets.


The impacts of new legislation and policy.


Changes in resources directed at crime prevention and control (especially policing).


Sentencing, including treatment of re-offenders and those in breach of court orders.

Prior to setting up his consultancy in 1994, John Walker worked as a research criminologist with the Australian Institute of Criminology. During this period he was ranked as the 25th most cited criminologists in the world’s major international journals since 1985, and the top 3 in Australia (Cohn E.G. and Farrington D.P., Changes in the Most-Cited Scholars in Major International Journals between 1986-90 and 1991-95, British Journal of Criminology Vol 38 No 1, Winter 1998).

Between 1994 and 2001, he worked exclusively as an independent researcher, with clients including the United Nations Centre for International Crime Prevention (for whom he was principal author of the International Survey on Firearms Regulation report and an invited author of sections of the Global Report on Crime and Justice), the Australian Transaction Reports & Analysis Centre (which commissioned his "Estimates of the Extent of Money Laundering in and through Australia"), and several State correctional agencies (including Victoria, Tasmania, the A.C.T., New Zealand and Colorado (USA)). 

Between 2001 and 2004, he was responsible for the development of crime and justice forecasting techniques in the Victorian Department of Justice, and his work was acknowledged by the Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance as best practice in the State public service (see their Management Reform Program Case Study)[3]. The projections were fundamental to the Public Correctional Enterprise of Victoria being awarded a Silver Medal for Business Excellence during 2003[2], the highest level ever awarded to any Australian public service agency.  The modeling of Community Corrections in Victoria was also awarded a prize for “Breaking new ground” at the “Probation 2004” conference organised by the U.K. National Probation Service[4], recognising "exemplary community corrections projects which serve to advance the knowledge, effectiveness and the integrity of the criminal justice system".

Since returning to full-time consultancy in 2004, he has advised the Australian Government on the extent of money laundering in Australia, developed resource allocation models for the Victoria Police and the Attorney General’s Aboriginal Legal Services, and conducted analyses of future correctional trends in Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. The high calibre and international recognition of John Walker’s expertise was further demonstrated when in 2005, against competition from large multinational research corporations, he was approached and commissioned to develop an economic model of the global illicit drug trades for the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. 

The "Walker Model" is now an established concept in two fields of practical empirical criminology.  The original prison projections model has grown to encompass more than twenty agencies across the Victorian Department of Justice, including Victoria Police, the Office of Public Prosecutions, the Higher and Lower Courts of Victoria, the Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine, the Office of the Public Advocate, the Office of Police Integrity, Victorian Legal Aid, the Victim Support Agency, the Child Witness Service, the Juries Commissioner, the Victorian Government Reporting Service, the Appeal Costs Board, Corrections Victoria (Prisons and Community Corrections Service), the Adult Parole Board, the Infringement Management and Enforcement Services and the Emergency Services Telecommunications Authority, and it now projects trends in workloads and operating costs in each of these agencies.  And the "Walker Model of Moneylaundering" has reached the point where two Universities (Utrecht and Tor Vergata, Rome) have organised conference sessions to discuss its merits and how to develop it further into a tool for analysing money laundering flows and even for predicting new trends in money laundering or measuring the effectiveness of anti-moneylaundering strategies.

Client and Visitor Feedback

Wow, I suspect that there is only one person in Oz who could have done that - you!
Social Research consultant, 2014.

"Thanks for your support and your pioneering work which inspired ours" - World Bank Task Team Leader, 2011.

"Thank you again for your hard work and exemplary flexibility throughout the process.  As, always, it was a pleasure to have you on board. As one of the brave pioneers in this field, you will likely continue to be very busy!" - U.N.O.D.C.  Section Head, 2011.

"Thank you for the support. Coming from someone who is one of the pioneers in this field is greatly appreciated" - World Bank finance sector specialist, 2010.

"It was really a wonderful time for me in Rome to chat with you.  In fact I was not expecting much when I decided to go to the conference since it was really a second choice for my want-to-go conference in 2009. However, it became such an amazingly satisfying conference experience for me all because of you and your work.  I can sense that you are really into something big and I am so thrilled to witness it and even have a chance of possibility of taking a part" - Taiwan economist, 2009.

"I wanted to take this opportunity to tell you how very much I enjoyed working with you,   how much you taught me (you're laughing dryly as you read -- yeah, it was hard to bring me up to any sort of speed with Excel) and how exciting it felt to be doing something that was going to really transform the business of Corrections" - former staff member, Victorian Dept of Justice, 2009.

"You are an inspiration to other exporters. This shows what one man can do" - Austrade Manager, 2009.

"The Team here really enjoyed your company and the study would make us one step ahead of the others in the region" - Financial Intelligence Unit CEO, 2008.

"Your 2007 Report on money laundering has challenged our thinking over the last year or so and has been a catalyst for re-consideration of some of our financial crimes investigations methodologies" - Financial Crimes Manager, Australian Crime Commission 2008.

"The Police Allocation Model has exceeded everyone's expectations" - Assistant Commissioner, Victoria Police 2007.

"Walker (1995 and 1998) was a pioneer who attempted to measure money laundering worldwide" - Austrian Economics Professor 2006.

"Hi John, thanks for working with us so amicably, it is really appreciated" - Victorian Dept of Justice 2006.

"Thanks for coming and giving your presentation at such short notice.  It was indeed lovely to meet you at last and your input, especially the presentation and the ensuing discussion was very valuable. It has been a pleasure to work with you" - A.C.T. Juvenile Justice 2006.

"While others generate publicity for wild estimates of the extent of money laundering, John Walker modestly devotes much of his life to the development of complex models to identify risks and to quantify aspects of the money laundering problem" - Anti-money-laundering expert Hong Kong 2006.

"For far too long the illicit drug market as been able to operate and hide in obscurity. It has taken much work and dedication, across the world, to shed light on this pernicious market”. ...John Walker's... “collaboration was vital to the development of the model which produced the estimates for the value of the illicit drug market” - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Vienna, 2005.

"I am so pleased to work with you in this project. And the outcome of this project is very impressive academically and operationally. Congratulations!" - Victoria Police analyst 2005.

"Thanks of everything, thanks for your patience and thanks for your benevolence, you have taught me more things you with some emails than the university in five years" - Italian PhD economics student 2005.

"You are so kind. I have download your file and check the interesting website you attached. Both wonderful, I like them very much. I really appreciate your help and instruction" - Chinese PhD criminology student 2005.

"Thanks for the papers that you have sent me about your study about the global money laundering flows. They are very, very, very helpful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have included them in my paper. ;-)"  - Austrian PhD economics student 2004.

"I had the pleasure to meet you last year during the SADC/ESAAMLG conference near Johannesburg, and I considered your presentation 'blue-label quality'" - Financial Sector Expert, International Monetary Fund 2004.

"I was so surprised to find your site. I must say your work sounds very exciting and I like your style" - website visitor 2003.

"I must say your pages are excellent. Your observations coincide with mine and are perfectly logical. It is a pity politicians and policy makers in our "Washminster" system of government can't see this. I'm looking forward to reading more of your work.  Keep it up this is great stuff" -  NSW Police Criminal Intelligence Analyst 2003.

"I just wanted to tell you I liked your site and I appreciated your sensible, straight-talking approach. I was actually looking for stats but I found your site an interesting read. Well done especially for having the balls to say something pointed about Aboriginal crime rates. The way Australia has handled this problem is atrocious and our continuing pitiful lack of interest in resolving Aboriginal deaths in custody is even worse" - public relations coordinator 2003.

Contact Information

+61 (0)2 6297 9764
+61 (0)2 6297 9764
Postal address
6 Severne St, Queanbeyan, NSW2620, Australia
Electronic mail


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Copyright © 2007 John Walker Crime Trends Analysis
Last modified: 01/18/16